Chapter 2 Demographic Transition| Class 12 Geography Notes

The demographic transition theory is a model that examines the relationship between economic progress and population expansion of a region. This theory describes the changing pattern of mortality, fertility, and growth rates as societies move from one demographic regime to another. Demographic transition is an important topic under the study of population, and this article aims to provide simplified notes and a detailed discussion on this specific topic, based on the Class 12 Geography Chapter 2 topic on Population. Students are advised to go through the article for a better understanding of the Demographic Transition Theory.

What is the Demographic Transition Theory?

• This theory studies the changes in the population of a region as it moves from high birth rates and high death rates to low birth rates and low death rates when it progresses from being a society with low technological, economic and educational development to one with advanced technology, education, and economic development.
• The theory suggests that the population growth of an area is linked to its overall level of economic development it aims to explain universal principles that govern how human populations develop in size and structure as a result of industrialization; These changes occur in stages that are collectively known as the demographic cycle.
• The theory is also used to characterize and forecast any area’s future population.
• The demographic transition should be viewed as a generic description of the evolutionary process rather than a ‘rule of population expansion.’

History of the Demographic Transition Theory

• The concept of Demographic transition was coined by Warren S. Thompson (1929) and later popularized by Frank W. Notestein (1945) in the mid-twentieth century, and has since been expanded upon by many others.
• By 2009, the existence of a negative relation between fertility and industrial development had become one of the most widely accepted theories in social science.
• The demographic transition hypothesis is characterized by important transition stages.
• The shift from high to low birth and death rates in societies may be separated into mainly three stages; Although some researchers, divide it into four or five stages as well, as they talk about a ‘pre-transition’ and ‘post-transition’ phase, but here we only discuss the main stages that are covered under the NCERT Class 12 syllabus.
• These stages are listed in the table below:

Transition Stages	Description
Stage I	This stage is marked by high fertility high mortality rate because people reproduce more to compensate for the deaths due to epidemics and inefficient food supply. Life expectancy is low and population growth is slow.
Stage II	Fertility rate remains high in the beginning of this stage but it declines over time. This is accompanied by reduced death rate, as there are improvements in sanitation and healthcare. Population expands rapidly as there is wide gap between birth and death rates.
Stage III	The birth and death rate both reduce considerably and the population moves towards stability/ slow growth. People become literate, urbanized and control the size of the family. There is good judicious use of technology also.

Stages in Demographic Transition Theory

The three stages of the demographic transition hypothesis are explained in detail below:

STAGE I

This stage is characterized by High Birth Rate and High Death Rate. The society is at a low level of economic development at this stage and agriculture is the primary source of income for most people. The quality of life for people at this stage is poor, due to lack of poor medical services, presence of diseases, famines, and illiteracy. Life expectancy is low caused by a high birth rate, a high infant mortality and high death rate and the population growth is slow. Most nations in the world were at this stage two hundred years ago. Sierra Leone and Somalia are two such examples of societies at this stage.

STAGE II

This stage, known as the stage of population explosion, is characterized by High birth rates and the Low death rates. The population grows at a rapid pace, as the birth rate is high while the death rate is low, caused by improved technological and healthcare facilities. The economic activity begins to expand beyond agriculture in the society and the death rate rapidly decreases as a result of improved health care and a nutritious diet. Fertility remains high at the start of the second stage, but it gradually drops. A decrease in infant mortality rates is also observed in the society at this stage.

STAGE III

This stage is characterized by Declining Birth Rate and Low Death Rate. The population growth is low, which is caused by a dropping birth rate and a low mortality rate. The society experiences economic and industrial progress and changes in the economic foundation itself. The quality of life of people in the society has significantly improved, and the society becomes more urbanized. Birth rate starts falling off at this stage, as large families are begun to be seen as a liability by the society. A significant increase in the number of senior citizens is seen in the society, due to declining death rates and a longer life expectancy. Societies at later stages of this phase experience population stability, as at some point we see birth rate almost equaling the mortality rate.

Interesting Note– Scholars like Haggett, (1975) also discuss a fourth and fifth stages of the Demographic transition theory, which are briefly highlighted here- Stage IV– It is characterized by Low Birth Rate and Low Death Rate. Population growth is stable or sluggish. Improved quality of life and advanced urbanization in the society. High population of elderly people. Stage V Significant fall in Fertility and mortality rates. The population is either constant or steadily increasing. The population is more urbanized, literate, and technologically advanced, and family size is small. This shows that humans are very adaptable and capable of adjusting their fertility, as per the situation.

Criticism of Demographic Transition Theory

• The theory of Demographic transition has been widely questioned among scholars in the academia, despite the hypothesis being extremely popular.
• The first flaw of this theory that scholars agree to, is that it is entirely based only on factual data or the experiences of Europe, America, and Australia, and not other continents of the globe aka it is not inclusive and hence cannot be deemed applicable to all.
• It has also been pointed by scholars that, in the theory is that the transition stages may not necessarily be in chronological order. For e.g.- former USSR nations (other than Russia) experienced a rise in mortality rates and entered the first stage of the demographic transition from the second and third stages of the demographic theory.
• The demographic transition hypothesis also does not take into account, migration which is a huge determinant of population growth.
• Some scholars feel factors like technological advancement, especially in the field of medicine, in relation to their ability to slow death rates, has been over exaggerated in the theory.
• The theory also does not provide a time range for a country to go from one level to the next and is very vague about the transitions.
• Crucial variables that influence fertility rates has not been given importance in the theory.

However despite these flaws, the demographic transition theory gives us an adequate and generalized depiction of the world’s demographic history at a larger level.

Trends in Demographic Transition in India

• Population growth in India has slowed in recent years as the annual growth rate has significantly gone down when compared to last decades, due to the consistent decline in India’s fertility rate since the mid 20th century.
• States like Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Kerala and Delhi show low fertility levels whereas UP, Bihar, MP, and Rajasthan are still showcasing high fertility levels.
• India is predicted to witness the proportion of its young population decline and the proportion of its elderly population increase, over the next 20 years, thanks to low fertility rates and higher life expectancy.
• Southern states in India will age faster and Northern states will have a longer window of demographic dividend.

People Also View:

• Population Growth and Process of Population Change in India
• Population Change Factors and Patterns
• World Population Distribution: Overview, Density and Growth
• Consequences of Declining Fertility

Conclusion – Class 12 Geography Notes Chapter 2 Demographic Transition

The demographic transition hypothesis looks into the relationship between economic growth and population growth. It examines variations in the birth and death rates, as well as the population growth rate, in relation to the growth and development process across regions. Despite its flaws, it has provided us with a generalized model to explain population growth trends across countries across the globe and helped enrich the discipline of demography and all of social sciences in general.

FAQs on Class 12 Geography Notes Chapter 2 Demographic Transition

What is Stage 2 of demographic transition?

Stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model is characterized by a rapid decrease in a country’s death rate while the birth rate remains high. The total population of a country in Stage 2 will rise because births outnumber deaths.

What is the advantage of demographic transition model?

The demographic transition model is generally very easy to understand, shows simple change over time, can be easily compared between different countries across the world, and shows how population and development go hand in hand.

Who gave the theory of demographic transition?

The theory of demographic transition has been propounded by W.S. Thomson and F.W. Notestein. They explain the theory in three stages.

What is the main problem with the Demographic Transition Model?

The Demographic Transition Model does not take into account migration which is a huge determinant of population growth. It also neglects varying factors within a country which influence birth and death rates.

What are the most important features of the demographic transition theory?

The main features of the demographic transition theory include changes in mortality, fertility, as well as the influence of science, technology, economy, culture, and social and political processes.