**Prerequisite:** Understanding Logistic Regression

Logistic regression is the type of regression analysis used to find the probability of a certain event occurring. It is the best suited type of regression for cases where we have a categorical dependent variable which can take only discrete values.

**The dataset :**

In this article, we will predict whether a student will be admitted to a particular college, based on their gmat, gpa scores and work experience. The dependent variable here is a **Binary Logistic variable**, which is expected to take strictly one of two forms i.e., *admitted* or *not admitted*.

## Builiding the Logistic Regression model :

**Statsmodels** is a Python module which provides various functions for estimating different statistical models and performing statistical tests

**y**) and independent(

**X**) variables. If the dependent variable is in non-numeric form, it is first converted to numeric using dummies. The file used in the example for training the model, can be downloaded here.

**Logit()**function for performing logistic regression. The

*Logit()*function accepts

**y**and

**X**as parameters and returns the

*Logit*object. The model is then fitted to the data.

`# importing libraries ` `import` `statsmodels.api as sm ` `import` `pandas as pd ` ` ` `# loading the training dataset ` `df ` `=` `pd.read_csv(` `'logit_train1.csv'` `, index_col ` `=` `0` `) ` ` ` `# defining the dependent and independent variables ` `Xtrain ` `=` `df[[` `'gmat'` `, ` `'gpa'` `, ` `'work_experience'` `]] ` `ytrain ` `=` `df[[` `'admitted'` `]] ` ` ` `# building the model and fitting the data ` `log_reg ` `=` `sm.Logit(ytrain, Xtrain).fit() ` |

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**Output :**

Optimization terminated successfully. Current function value: 0.352707 Iterations 8

In the output, ‘*Iterations*‘ refer to the number of times the model iterates over the data, trying to optimise the model. By default, the maximum number of iterations performed is 35, after which the optimisation fails.

## The summary table :

The summary table below, gives us a descriptive summary about the regression results.

`# printing the summary table ` `print` `(log_reg.summary()) ` |

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**Output :**

Logit Regression Results ============================================================================== Dep. Variable: admitted No. Observations: 30 Model: Logit Df Residuals: 27 Method: MLE Df Model: 2 Date: Wed, 15 Jul 2020 Pseudo R-squ.: 0.4912 Time: 16:09:17 Log-Likelihood: -10.581 converged: True LL-Null: -20.794 Covariance Type: nonrobust LLR p-value: 3.668e-05 =================================================================================== coef std err z P>|z| [0.025 0.975] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- gmat -0.0262 0.011 -2.383 0.017 -0.048 -0.005 gpa 3.9422 1.964 2.007 0.045 0.092 7.792 work_experience 1.1983 0.482 2.487 0.013 0.254 2.143 ===================================================================================

Explanation of some of the terms in the summary table:

**coef :**the coefficients of the independent variables in the regression equation.**Log-Likelihood :**the natural logarithm of the Maximum Likelihood Estimation(MLE) function. MLE is the optimisation process of finding the set of parameters which result in best fit.**LL-Null :**the value of log-likelihood of the model when no independent variable is included(only an intercept is included).**Pseudo R-squ. :**a substitute for the R-squared value in Least Squares linear regression. It is the ratio of the log-likelihood of the null model to that of the full model.

## Predicting on New Data :

Now we shall test our model on new test data. The test data is loaded from this csv file.

The **predict()** function is useful for performing predictions. The predictions obtained are fractional values(between 0 and 1) which denote the probability of getting admitted. These values are hence rounded, to obtain the discrete values of 1 or 0.

`# loading the testing dataset ` `df ` `=` `pd.read_csv(` `'logit_test1.csv'` `, index_col ` `=` `0` `) ` ` ` `# defining the dependent and independent variables ` `Xtest ` `=` `df[[` `'gmat'` `, ` `'gpa'` `, ` `'work_experience'` `]] ` `ytest ` `=` `df[` `'admitted'` `] ` ` ` `# performing predictions on the test datdaset ` `yhat ` `=` `log_reg.predict(Xtest) ` `prediction ` `=` `list` `(` `map` `(` `round` `, yhat)) ` ` ` `# comparing original and predicted values of y ` `print` `(` `'Acutal values'` `, ` `list` `(ytest.values)) ` `print` `(` `'Predictions :'` `, prediction) ` |

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**Output :**

Optimization terminated successfully. Current function value: 0.352707 Iterations 8 Acutal values [0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1] Predictions : [0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1]

Testing the accuracy of the model :

`from` `sklearn.metrics ` `import` `(confusion_matrix, ` ` ` `accuracy_score) ` ` ` `# confusion matrix ` `cm ` `=` `confusion_matrix(ytest, prediction) ` `print` `(` `"Confusion Matrix : \n"` `, cm) ` ` ` `# accuracy score of the model ` `print` `(` `'Test accuracy = '` `, accuracy_score(ytest, prediction))` |

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**Output :**

Confusion Matrix : [[6 0] [2 2]] Test accuracy = 0.8

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